What’s Your p(Bloom)?
Enough “What’s your p(Doom)?” How about asking: “What’s your p(Bloom)?” Asking someone for their “p(bloom)” means asking them: “What is the likelihood that AGI will cause all sentient and autopoietic…
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Enough “What’s your p(Doom)?” How about asking: “What’s your p(Bloom)?” Asking someone for their “p(bloom)” means asking them: “What is the likelihood that AGI will cause all sentient and autopoietic…
In our first-ever episode of The Trajectory podcast, Yoshua Bengio shared his ideas in our “AGI Destinations” series (playlist here). At the very end of that interview, I asked him…
“It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.” – Aristotle Many who would read those words and smile confidently, knowing…
The attenuation of humans-as-they-are, and the necessity of discussing what we should turn into (and creating or turning into that new thing) is an uncomfortable and sacrilegious idea in 2025,…
This is an interview with Emmett Shear, CEO of SoftMax, co-founder of Twitch, former interim CEO of OpenAI, and one of the few public-facing tech leaders who seems to take…
Identity is an incredibly strong force in the human psyche, and it manifests itself in all kinds of social science contexts: Determining what actions are “best” for us (or our…
People often read about the worthy successor, or generally axiologically cosmic ideas, and ask: “Okay, Dan, but how do I actually DO something about this?” As it turns out, there…
Like it or not, we humans share the fate of all forms (individuals, species, substrates): To transform or be destroyed. I suspect we have from 15 to 40 years before…
Given a long enough time horizon, all things (individuals, species, forms) die out completely or transform into something else. Lucretius and the second law of thermodynamics concur here. In this…
This is an interview with Joshua Clymer, a technical AI safety researcher at Redwood Research. Before that, he researched AI threat models and developed evaluations for self-improvement capabilities at METR….