The Political Singularity – When AGI is the Only Issue on the Table

ByDan

The Political Singularity hypothesis:

At some point in the 21st century, global and national politics will center entirely around the questions related to the (a) creation and (b) control of posthuman intelligence.

Essentially, when post-human intelligence comes into view for the average first world citizen (through a disaster or otherwise), it will be the preeminent concern for citizens – and consequently for the politicians who serve and pander to them.

Beyond a specific threshold of capability, nothing else in the political realm (will we build a new playground for the elementary school? Which candidate is pro or anti-immigration? etc…) will matter at all by comparison.

We’ll know when this is the case when the citizenry, the media, and politicians are all completely fixated on questions of creating and controlling AGI.

Using the graphic below, at the time of this writing (Q2 2025), we’re still mostly in phase 1 of the Political Singularity:

Who knows what will be the straw that breaks the camels back (i.e. the event that makes the entire developed world turn to post-human intelligence as the preeminent political concern), maybe:

  • When robots become indistinguishable from humans in physical movement and dexterity.
  • When AI takes away wide swaths (say, 20%) of white collar or blue collar jobs over a single year.
  • When governments and large companies increasingly make decisions based on AI (or the AI itself makes said decisions), and normal people realize that humans aren’t really steering the ship anymore.
  • When artificial intelligence can create artificial “persons” with memory and the ability to carry our conversations with the same tact and intelligence as humans – on any topic.
  • When scientists in China augment their soldiers with enhanced memory and focus, removing their need for sleep for up to 100 hours with only minimal side effects.
  • When instead of remote control beetles (see above), scientists develop remote-controlled cats or dogs, prompted to run, jump, or bark/meow with the push of a button.

The transition to a Political Singularity might be gradual, but my guess that a series of pivotal events will bring it about.

It might simply be a jarring or troubling scientific breakthrough (like what I’ve listed above), but I think it’s more likely that it will be a Pearl Harbor-like tragic event, though hopefully on a very small scale (I’ve written much more on the nature of AI Disasters here).

Either way, once it happens, life won’t be returning to “normal.” The remainder of the human condition – which likely won’t be long – will probably involve wrestling with these issues continuously until we attenuate entirely or some of us turn into some kind of posthuman entities.

The prospect of becoming a subservient species to a higher intelligence is an ultimate threat – worth doing anything to prevent. The prospect of becoming or creating God is an ultimate opportunity – worth doing anything to fight to achieve. This will drive up the efforts for substrate dominance, and control of / development of artificial intelligence.

It’s easy to see how easily this would turn into a conflict between the nations or groups that want to create – or do not want to create – post-human intelligence. Hugo de Garis’ book “The Artilect War” painted a picture of pro-AGI and anti-AGI human conflict back in 2005. It’s my belief that this prediction will one day be seen as prophetic.

Writing this in 2018, it sure would be nice to see people fighting about something other than Donald Trump’s latest tweet, immigration, or whether gender is biological or merely a social construct.

On the other hand, it’s no relief to be at the precipice of passing the baton of species dominance to something beyond ourselves. A catch 22, I suppose.

(Note: Political Singularity was first written in 2018 and has needed to be revised on a a number of occasions.)

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